Political Satire: Potential 2011 State of the Union Address

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

We are getting close to plugging the hole in the Gulf of Mexico and let me make it clear; Seafood is over rated!

Phoenix Arizona is better governed by Mexican drug cartels and look at the bright side, it’s cheaper this way AND can help to pay down some of the National debt, even though the run away Congress will never quit frivolous spending towards saving the Earth, but in due time when we do save the Earth, it can be funded by furthering the rationing of health care!

I know that the middle class is upset to the fact that their income taxes are now at 75% of their income, but at least they get a real high tech fancy dancy National ID card with their DNA in the card for it! How cool is that? I especially like the hologram!

And I know that you’re upset because the National average utility bill is now only $950.00 a month, but you just have to learn how to conserve better or just work more and it will be okay, I promise, your attitude will make all of the difference!

Now if we can just spend another 1.5 Trillion dollar Stimulus package bill that has been introduced in the Congress, this time I will promise to you that the unemployment rate will not exceed 25%, I PROMISE! We are nearly there to make America into the Utopia that I had always dreamed about as a young boy growing up!

Now, in 2011 we will balance the budget this time by just eliminating the entire Military. Military’s cost a fortune, attracts racists, angers other Nations and we just can’t have a Military and Nationalized health care at the same time, but then we have to some how figure out how to pay for some new bail outs that my pals on Wall Street need, so that I can have enough campaign funds to get re elected in 2012. But DO NOT worry, because we have a Marxist think tank who will figure out how to solve this dilemma and eventually with an open budget, we will figure out what the budget should be to convince you that it is balanced while I go out on another golfing adventure. If we have to, I will just sell the Statue of Liberty to Shang Hai. That city has way better harbors there any ways and the Statue of Liberty would look really good in their modern high tech city that boasts all of the manufacturing jobs that the USA once had! Maybe if we included the Brooklyn Bridge, the Lincoln Memorial, the Seattle Space Needle and all of the artifacts in the Smithsonian, they will return the Hummer Manufacturing jobs to us to create an additional 10,000 jobs to catch up to the 35 Million job deficit that we currently have. It’ll be great! We will definitely get a handle on this unemployment problem as our 3rd Most important priority instead of how in 2010 it was our last priority, because of Nationalized health care, cap and tax and that BP thing got in the way of my golfing and weekly concerts as well as all of those racists down there in Arizona complaining about the Mexican Drug cartels blowing them away. Maybe if everybody in Arizona wasn’t so racist all the time then the Mexican Drug Cartels wouldn’t want to shoot them up, but at any rate my Attorney General will keep them tied up in court for years to come so that we don’t have to be distracted by those little people who don’t really matter anymore and 2011 will be a much better year than 2010, for me.

Keep believing! Do NOT give up hope and always remember, it is Bushes fault and YES WE CAN!!!

YES WE CAN!!!

Good night America!

Europe – A Political Cemetery

EUROPE – A POLITICAL CEMETERY

or A Pharaonic Folly ?

No one can deny that the subject evokes a considerable amount of heated discussion anywhere today from within and outside the so called Union. Much is based on an instinctive urge to flee from its implications and the lowering of social standards since its inception. The grandiose idea of a united system of cultures identified with a common cause, was what was originally put forward. It was full of benefits like a more spohisticated democratic concept and the raising of living standards. Those who visualized the power of the masses in a context that challenged the very might of the USA and the Asian Giants would appear to have been looking elsewhere when they formulated these conclusions. It appeared to make sense from a national security point of view and perhaps even from a very long term economic one, but socially, culturally and economically it is turning out to be a potential Hindenberg. The level and variety of taxation geared to improving what appears to be myriads of minor issues which plagued Britain through its Unions in the sixties and the wanton waste that this new bureaucracy has been flaunting, guarantees failour. But then perhaps, the whole idea is centred around a pampered superclass that lives in and around the giant multinationals, political skim offs and liberal expense accounts. Perhaps, perhaps,…but even more dangerously so, the average citizen is being driven further away from his customary political powers and entrepreneurial effort is being squashed under cold and uncooperative banking systems. Systems which are consciously against support of effort in most European countries and especially in the Latin countries which appear to be only interested in deposits to be unskillfuly played around with. Despite European directives and support, the small and medium sized companies have seen this supprt not only denied but reduced by previous standards. Europe it seems is but a vision of a multinational Shangrilah with a shackled mayority paying for it to the point of destitution. The frightening aspect of this is, that public cooperation is being extracted with standard torture tactics. The same inquisitor, the same circumstances, the same indirect threats and always, the brainwashing vision of a new paradise in store. If it were not something so close to home, one could almost imagine it was some sort of cult.

Initial sounds of warning ignored.

Loud words indeed from a bureaucratic point of view but it is from this aspect that the colossal edifice begins to radiate signs of stage scenery covering real, unpublished intentions. The nations of Europe in the first instance, like Britain, Germany and France whose distinctive cultures and power aspirations have over the centuries produced, long, bloody and expensive wars, have little if anything in common with the later, less successful entrants to the scene. The Scandinavian Bloc itself with its high social standards but poor economies, short of a dissenting territory like Norway, made it clear from the start that it was particularly sensitive to the entry of Meditteranean states, whose cultural and political stances were not immediately acceptable. The fear that they would drain the Union resources with traditional, little will to change, raised a spectre that kept these entries at bay for a while. The idea of working alongside these, was not a palatable one and time has proved that caution should not have been thrown to the wind so lightly in the name of size, wrongfully associated with strength. Practically every cent of contribution by the main three leaders of the exercise, have gone to those countries whose systems of political management and economic control have remained technically unchanged and wedged in power structures that are difficult to determine whether they are communistic or fascist in so far as the pressures on the average citizens are concerned. Incomprehensibly inefficient push button judiciaries and arrogant judges demonstrating rights above the spirit of the law, draw in millions of disconcerted citizens who face fines and punishments reminiscent of other similar types of corrective pressures in countries like the Soviet Union or China. The percentage of citizens who have been before a Judge or Magistrate at one time or another in the Meditteranean states, is similar to the figures of the old eastern block. Even tourists who bring in the major export income, find themselves in these primitive court rooms answering to charges that often border on the ridiculous. Today, despite the billions spent and mainly wasted on these states, the idea still pervades the local institutions that progress rests on the creation of powerful monopolistic entities designed to pursue Utopian national identities rather than forge a fair and welfare oriented society. The average family rests on borderline security which for some is not even there at all. Poverty and malnutrition is strongly visible in these societies where fear of the obscene cost of lighting and heating is bringing back perversive diseases. Work is denied to most families and creative entrepreneurial talent discouraged through abuse of Union protective legislation which in the main is thought of as opportunity by the infamous Ministries and labour courts to increase the already onerous taxation based on crippling fines. These have direct access to bank accounts which they use at will and confiscate properties worth millions to ensure the payment of these technically illegal sanctions against which no unsuspecting employer has within the short time allocated, the capacity to fight. Corruption, is rife throughout within these societies. The number of cases of fraud against European funding occupies thousands of judicial employees daily but corruption is also very present in the law enforcement agencies with particular reference to municipal, badly selected entrants, of the worst hollywood variety who harass those they instinctively dislike or appear to be better off then themselves. Recently in one of these member states, a large proportion of these hapless merchants were collectively raked in to answer to their criminal activities. It is worrying when one considers to what extent and for how long, thousands of innocent or weak citizens have borne the yoke or even bullets of these sick contributors to public disorder.

An insensitive structure and imposed leaders.

The public relations funding required to drag the electorate away from its negative appraisal of the Union, is probably more than the the usual, three, contributive countries, will be able to raise within their own now poorer, economic platforms. The essence of the matter is that whilst bureaucratic administration has become an end in itself (and a prohibitively expensive one) even at national levels, the overriding crust of the so called coordinating forces at Supranational level allocates itself an ever increasing amount of personal income. This further discourages the efforts of the small and medium sized companies which provide the bulk of the national wealth of the member states. Internal communications problems within the Union are already visible. Trying to find the appropriate detpartment or attempting to place a serious complaint against their own national authorities is a nightmare of expensive phone calls against a 902 number style operators whose lingual understandings do not often go beyond rustic French and broken English. Standard, robotic responses followed up by supposedly helpful emails pointing to the ridiculous, inundated Ombudsmen smack of Babel, rather than of future champions of public rights. Image and presence are factors which are also alienating opinion away such a relationship. The top gesticulating figures are visibly of minor consequence, who in the main were not able to do much in their own countires during their own periods of high office there. The thought of these people who do not match the required statesmanship levels of the highly developed societies of Europe, will guarantee that the Union will be no more than a dream along the lines of previous attempts. The endless (and childish) photographic group sessions endlessly captured by the cameras and doled out to the yawning viewers, is but an aspect of what is now seen as a hopeless merry go round of deluded and unimpressive puppets, in the hands of economic forces well beyond their capability to comprehend or influence. It also amusingly, creates the impression that there appears to be no one at the helm back home.

Many years after the first consolidating changes were made and the lenient distribution of British, French and German tax payments were ladled out to the diametrically opposed lower Meditteranean democracies, the light in the tunnel appears to be switched off. Additonally, the systems behind the scenes continue to be as archaic and undemocratic as they were pre second world war and whilst the signs of cooperation appeared to be positive, they now wane when the one way funding, lessens its flow. In fact, it is not difficult to deduce, that the leopard does not change its spots that easily whilst the Eduropean administrators and fickle purse managers, despite press clamour, have conveniently looked (and continue to do so), the other way. The reason, it would seem, is not because of ingenuity, but because other, more political and less socially oriented ambitions, are at stake. Bluntly, it seems to consist of mere concentration of power and the sort of economic strength that favours the few (in their supposed support of the interest of the many). This type of top heavy economic system favours fast economic responses to outside challenges and committments which public interests would normally shun. Hardly a password to democracy and ethical values. All the signposts point to 1984 and if only for that reason, despite bankruptcy in the process, it has to be stopped and a massive NO said to direct rule from this ridiculous quango. The so called Barroso 11 with an inbuilt arrogance surrounding a not too realistic a figure for the exercise, is but a case in points of the level of self delusion that the European platform has descended too.  It also puts into question the ability of real talent to get to the top positions without cheap party politics getting in the way. The puerile media presentation of the reinstallation of this mediocre figure (in the absence of anything better of course) admirably demonstrates that the political clutch is slipping badly. Going back on itself, is hardly going to encourage the sense of forward motionm.

Crushing effects of immoral levels of taxation.

Europe is long in coming, some would say, in addressing the positive issues of a united, cosmopolitan, commonwealth of nations. In fact, it has hardly moved in that direction at all since the EEC was launched and promises to do so, are subject always to an eye on future taxation, never to policy changes. Real, family, business and human rights needs will forever, it would seem, remain on second priority listing, if at all, whilst it dents the public capability of absorbing its paperwork costs. Wasted efforts which have never been followed through and unchecked funding has put paid to the dream. Fiscal pressure is already far too intense with the creation of a veritable bureacratic army ready to defend its own vested interests and acquired powers.

The recession has made individual states more maleable from the point of view of vulnerability and therefore now deemed likely to support so called futher moves towards the new Canaan. Whether such a thing actually exists, is far from clear but hammering out resistance during stressful times, works better it seems, if reluctant Ireland is anything to go by. What most Europeans yearned for however, was the complete opposite of that delivered – a replacement of all the things about their own countries that they resented and the vision of a wide expanse of landscape through which each and every member could walk, work and feel at home in. None of these things are true of the countries of modern Europe and in some, the very presence of European foreigners is barely tolerated. European Commission naievity in this respect has not gone unnoticed and newspaper letters have more than adequately reiterated this prime concern. Some countries even deter the employment of other european nationals and particularly the professionals who bring in their own, often higher, standards. The undesirable public image of the would be leaders who mean little to most is also a cause for concern and the rotating principle of national leaders ensures that most take little if any interest in European affairs. If ever anything came close to the real meaning of anything put together by a committee, Europe most definitely qualifies. Few could stomach the thought of an overriding Mao Tse Tong figure of the likes of pompous Barroso or empty Blair. The world is moving away from such visions of authority and today, the emphasis is on cooperative rather than vertically structured societies surmounted by power assignees of doubtful origins. Internet would probably not survive their attempt to ensure that people succumbed to their charms.

Europe threfore from the layman point of view, is not a clear exercise of aspired social needs at every level of the happily or grudingly accepted local, national offer. Whilst the political and banking scene has never quite endeared itself, it has now reached levels of rejection that can only have serious consequences with respect to any attempt to reproduce them with European magnitude. The matter of a European President therefore, is probably much more disconcerting and dangerously destabilizing than many of the hopefuls of the upper European echelons would appear to suggest. Repressive government by the back door is not even on the menu, as far as the average European is concerned. Less so, when the appointees to the senior posts are pushed to the foreground by unseen hands and quality by intensive public selection of genuine talent is ignored. If Europe were to have such a thing as a President and a real government responsible to the people, it would need statesmen drawn from the ranks of the charismatic, intelligent and successful with a heart bigger than all of those thing put together.

No guts for real social reform.

Aspects of Europe which are difficult to reconcile are beginning to foster doubts as to the nature of the animal. Continuing, low economic performance of some member states at the expense of the rest has been tolerated to the point of patronage, whilst seemingly obvious to all, that cultural and political resistance is at the bottom of it. Sensitive issues like human rights, contamination, and jingoistic approach to outside investments, plague the scenery. Some of these poorly educated societies are likely never to aspire to changes in their social structures – the well entrench few will make sure of that. Some are already blaming Europe for their own, predictable and shocking unemployment figures. Some are even considering that a return to their currencies could have saved them from the ravages, despite the very opposite being true. The real powers behind the throne in these un-european “kept” societies, are very difficult to define and their politicians pay lip service to party ideologies that disappeared with the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Two party systems defy democracy itself and also point in the direction of a one party Europe. Thereby hangs the reluctance which subconscious appreciation of the threatening emerging power structures, produces, understandably, in the hunted human animal.

Michael Mifsud was a Parliamentary correspondent at the age at 15. Royal touring writer and  Commonwealth agency contributor and publisher of Britain’s first trade journal for drivers. He is  a millionaire businessman and hotelier and owned his own airline charter company. He has ghosted various books and was a Contributor to Holy Blood and Holy Grail. The Messianic Legacy. The Sword and the Seal and author Al Andalus  – a trail of discoveries. Amazon. He is a Freeman of the City of London and has orders of merit from Poland, Aghanistan and Serbia. He is also a member of the Council of Elders of the Order of Kinghts Templar -  Versailles 1705.

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Political Parties Funding Recent History – A Study by Artur Victoria

Parties seek more money from the taxpayer but there will always be tight constraints on this source of funding. The obvious source of big money is rich donors and corporations. But such donors are not usually motivated by generosity. They want to see a return. Political parties in a number of countries now accept large donations on the condition that the donor can be identified. Some have also banned donations from abroad. For officials who are tempted to evade rules on party funding the current punishments hardly act as disincentive. Yves Marie Doublet says, where there are controls on party finance the sanctions are usually toothless. In some countries punishments are as little as being banned from political office for two years.

Scandals erupted throughout Europe. The Elf Aquitaine affair spread from France to Germany when it was revealed President Mitterrand provided slush funds that were passed onto their allies at the Christian Democratic Union. The former German CDU Chancellor, Helmut Kohl, escaped prosecution in March 2001 although he accepted $1m in illegal political donations for the CDU when he was in office. Instead Kohl paid a fine of $142,000 admitting that he had broken the rules on the funding of political parties but rejected accusations that he accepted donations in return for political favors. For receiving dubious funds worth a total of DM12m the CDU was separately heavily fined some DM 18million. The scandal delivered a blow to Germany national self-image. No longer could it be seen as a country considered largely free of ingrained corruption.

In Britain, despite reforms during the mid 1990s, the Labor Government which came to power in 1997 has suffered repeated problems over political donations despite promises of transparency. As early as 1997 Labor faced allegations of sleaze after it was revealed that one major election donor had later managed to negotiate with the government an exception to a new law. Bernie Ecclestone, the millionaire head of Formula One Racing, had donated £1million to the party in the run up to the election. Then Ecclestone had also negotiated with the new government an exemption for Formula One Racing from the banning of tobacco advertising in sport. The Labor government argued that the two events were unrelated, though it subsequently returned the money. Labor continued to be dogged by allegations. The Hinduja Brothers, who run their international business mainly from London, have been accused of buying access to politicians with donations. The situation was exacerbated when members of the family were questioned by the Indian Police in connection with the Bofors guns for bribe

Parties seek more money from the taxpayer but there will always be tight constraints on this source of funding. The obvious source of big money is rich donors and corporations. But such donors are not usually motivated by generosity. They want to see a return. Political parties in a number of countries now accept large donations on the condition that the donor can be identified. Some have also banned donations from abroad. For officials who are tempted to evade rules on party funding the current punishments hardly act as disincentive. Yves Marie Doublet says, where there are controls on party finance the sanctions are usually toothless. In some countries punishments are as little as being banned from political office for two years.

In Dublin in March 2001 journalists watching from the street saw Liam Lawlor light a bonfire in his back garden to burn confidential financial documents. Mr Lawlor, a member of Ireland governing Fianna Fail party, had just spent a week in Mountjoy Prison for refusing to co-operate with the Flood Tribunal. The TD is alleged to be at the centre of a vast web of bribery and backhanders involving politicians, councilors, property developers, planners and accountants going back 20 years.

President Clinton pardon of sanction buster Marc Rich in the last moments of his administration also caused public and media outrage. Marc Rich wife Denise Rich had made large donations to Democratic Party funds and for the Clinton library project.

In the USA, concern has focused recently on campaign financing. “Effective political campaigns have always been fuelled by money as well as ideas. But in recent years, the cost of running for Congress and the Presidency has soared to record heights. For many candidates, raising money is no longer one important issues, it is the only issue,” says John S Weston, Chairman of the Committee for Economic Development Research and Policy committee, introducing a statement calling for radical reform of campaign finance laws in the US. In this policy statement, the Trustees of CED makes a strong case for sweeping reforms that will restore trust and balance to the campaign finance system, while protecting the first amendment rights of candidates and contributors.

In the US the average candidate for Congress spends $3.8m on their campaign while the average House of Representatives candidate spends $500,000. Personal wealth is becoming a key requirement for effective candidacy. Of particular concern were ‘soft money’ donations that are exempted from the Federal Laws on political donations yet are beneficial to candidates. In 1998 the US national party committees raised $201m, a record for a midterm election: The Republicans raised 112% more than in 1994 and the Democrats 89% more. The parties use this money for such activities as party building, candidate-specific issue ads, and voter registration and turnout drives. Much of this money was raised from contributions from individuals or organizations that could afford $100,000 or more.

There are continuing attempts to reform the US system. In March 2001 the Senate began a debate on overhaul of the nation campaign finance laws, with critics likening the current system to a ‘money laundering’ operation that exchanges cash for influence, while its defenders argued that the prescribed cure would violate free-speech rights and endanger political parties.

Two Senators have proposed a bill to reform the US laws on political donations. At the core of the McCain-Feingold bill is a ban on unlimited ‘soft money’ contributions to political parties from corporations, unions and wealthy individuals. These donations have run from $100,000 upwards and have often been associated with pressure on politicians for favors in return.

But it is not all bad news. “Scandinavian countries seem to be doing the best, judging by their relative lack of scandals. Strong party loyalty? Parties make the decision on candidates for office and provide funding for campaigns? Enables countries such as Sweden to publicly finance parties and steer clear of scandal. Abuses are also no – existent in part because Scandinavian countries start with a high level of consensus on propriety and a low tolerance for corruption. These values carry over into the campaign finance. Yet Scandinavia and Canada almost prove to be the exceptions.

The Hinduja affair in London has cost one Cabinet Minister, Peter Mandelson, his job and damaged the reputation of another Minister, Keith Vaz.

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Improveable Indian Political Condition

India is the only country in the world that is Soviet Socialist Democratic Republic. Its constitution allows Freedom of Speech and that is where exactly right now it is misunderstood and is currently facing political drama. Rahul Gandhi used his freedom of Speech which was not liked by Shiv Sena Supremo and same with Shahrukh Khan. Its quite surprising that this is the time when all the parties should sit together and discuss about the global recession and the way USA has decided that it will stop outsourcing business to any other country and let us be very clear that due to that decision most affected country will be India, similarly let us all sit together and discuss that how can we stop brain drain from India. Indians who have in past given great values to the world let us all set one more example by forming a government where there are experts of all the fields like Prime Minister ideal candidate is Atal Bihari Vajpayee, for Finance Minster ideal candidate is Mr Manmohan Singhji and he should be assisted by Mr Montak Singh Ahuliwalia, Railway Minister should be Mamta Banerjee , Home Minister should be Mr Sachin Pilot, Defence Minister should be Mr Narendra Modi, Foreign Affairs Ministrer should be Mr Sharad Pawar and other ministry can be decided as per the requirements but if such government comes to power be rest assured we will be super power and no country in the world can stop India to be number 1 in all sectors. Whatever is happening right now in India is due to the differences of opinions between the parties and due to that other weaker countries are taking undue advantage. What are we doing now we are playing a blame game and nothing else? Rather let us make a government such that there are old as well as new generation people and let us all keep one point agenda that by 2012 we can dictate terms on other countries and let us all stop fighting on petty matters and let us thing big, rather very big. I am sure that we Indians are that capable that we can do the impossible as we have done time and again and proved to world.

?

Mr Saurabh Mehta

Indian

+91 93747 26262

Indian Commodity Prices – Political & Beurocratic War On Common Man

                Indian commodity price rise in 2009 -2010 fiscal year for certain commodities may be more a political & beurocratic lobbying rather than mere international price movements. This year thankfully India has added fuel to the rising prices which have pushed the prices to the next level. As on today Food inflation in India has moved upto 17.09% which is substantial on a GDP growth of 7.5% average this year. Indian Government says that it’s doing its best to control domestic prices but for me, it’s a pure misguide to common man, which has actually fallen fatal.

I see the movement in a different angle than some analysts with few major commodities like Sugar & Dairy which have become hot news as on date.

Sugar Prices:

This year global sugar price increase is a sole product of Indian sugar cooperatives tactful lobbying, influential politics & Stock holding. Let’s not blame international market.

Sugar is basically a crop which is driven by price sentiment & realization. Farmer takes decision to go for Cash crops or Sugar plantation based on the price he receives for the previous sugar crop at factories.  Due to surplus production in 2007 & 2008, many farmers have been cheated by the so called cooperative system of Sugar factories which is mostly monopolized by few major stake holders. Our present Agriculture minister, who himself has shares in more than dozen factories in Maharashtra which accounts to half of major running mills.  This has lead to farmers diversifying into Cash crops for better realization in 2009, which led to a shortage of 40 lakh tones as per Agriculture Ministry. Now here comes the biggest question, that how come Agriculture ministry was not aware of the total crop acreage for this season, if yes they blame it on drought. But actually we find that the total acreage this year was 18 % less than last year which is coupled by drought this season for shortage.

Sugar is the only crop which adopts FIFO system in books of entry, which means that the first cane which goes in comes out of factory first. Sugar factories work on minimum 3 years planning & workout as the crop itself is cultivated as 12, 18 & 24month crop depending on the region and type of irrigation facilities. There is always a buffer stocks @ minimum 14% per season which are maintained for basic commodities like Sugar at state & central levels warehouses.

Real Reason & strategy behind the same:

Last year (2008 -2009 fiscal) many sugar suppliers had to liquidate their positions cutting down on the margins, this year Agriculture Ministry had to bail out these cooperatives & had openly came out with a public statement that we may expect sugar shortage by 40 lakh tones near to the time when everyone where eagerly waiting for the early crop to be crushed in mills. India one of the largest producer and consumer is short by 25% on total production is a big blow to International market. This has coupled heat & speculation on international market with prices surging from 380 USD/mt to 780 USD/mt within a span of 4 weeks & left only two major exporters like Brazil & Thailand to cover the vacuum. Many players in International market had started covering their positions even before Indian government has announced anything. Do you think our Agriculture minister is fool enough to lift import duty on Sugar after 2 months, absolutely not? He is more intellectual than anyone else, where in all the domestic produce which was at the factory gates have been sold at current international price levels at 780 USD/Mt into domestic wholesalers, which had suddenly roused up the prices in domestic retail market. And when India lifted duty on imports making it to Zero, it was already too late for importers in India to cover up at lower levels and many of them have booked at higher levels with many difficulties and short coverage from Brazil, added my huge transit time from Latin America.

Now the sugar prices in India may fall in 2nd quarter of 2010 as we have already imported 54 lakh tones of sugar for a shortage of 40 lakh tones of sugar, making a surplus of 14 lakh tones excess. This will be coupled with 8 lakh tones of early crush season crop in Uttar Pradesh which will be coming into domestic market in one or two months. Funny thing is that we can expect a bumper crop for next season as many of the farmers have received better rates in UP for this year, which will lead to more acreage in 2010. 

Many traders who have imported in India now, have the bear the loses next quarter as we will be having a total of 80 lakh tons (54 lakh Mt + 8 Lakh + Buffer stock in state warehouses) before even the next season crop comes in.

This play game has left sugar cooperatives and political lobby happy making common man a mere spectator.  

Dairy Prices:

In addition to Sugar, Milk prices in India have also raised to such an extent that, it’s become hard to believe that we are the largest milk producers in world accounting to less than 1% of international exports & have a shortage domestically. Then how can we blame international prices when India does not play much role in International Dairy export market. International prices have now slowly started falling down especially due to large intervention stocks lying in EU & stocks in USA for Milk powders. Currently International prices for Milk powder are far lower than Indian domestic prices, which may be a possibility of India to import. But we cannot import on present 40% import duty and the decision will be only done on mercy of our Agriculture Minister. And will be too late to catch on the prices !!!

Ministry claims that this year the basic reason of domestic price rise in India is due to raw milk availability, but that’s not the real reason to cash on.

Real Reason.

Do not imagine that cows & buffaloes have given less milk this time or many have been routed to abattoirs, absolutely not. 

When International prices have moved up for casein mid this year, much of the global casein was available at 8000 USD/mt & above. Whereas Indian season has started at the same time and our casein seemed attractive at levels of 6000USD/mt far lower than International pricing.  Many of guys advised not to give incentives on exports but, as said earlier we are run by lobbying by casein manufacturers and one biggest casein factory owned by our beloved Agriculture Minister. Due to export incentives on casein much of the raw milk is sucked into factories and moved to USA & Far East major destinations for casein.

This has left to shortage of Milk for 70+ private players & retail supply shooting up the prices to roof. Major losers here are public & biggest gainers are cooperatives due to internal high prices & Casein manufacturers with export realization.

Many are trying to request government to put a ban on casein exports from past 4 months, but I am sure that this ban or removal of export subsidy will be done only after a month when India will enter into lean season & most of the export volumes have made their way to destinations.

Some common points for both commodities:

In both the cases its mostly lobbying
In both cases our minister is Involved directly or indirectly as a owner/ Shareholder in Sugar mills & Dynamix (one of the largest private dairy & exporter)
In both cases he is the key decision maker or policy maker as Agriculture Minister.

But who cares for all the above, we have already tasted 59.06% rise in potato & 29.8% inflation on onion prices with our GDP expected to close down on an average of 7.5% with great difficulty.

Adding on to this heard that Biscuit would be 10 to 15% costlier, why not as both the above said commodities have a share.

I just tried to be precise on how we can be fooled simple beurocratic lobbying, which is purely my personal analysis on market outlook.

For any comments, advices & suggestions on this article, please feel free to write at balupest@yahoo.co.in

 

Regards

Bharath Kumar Thota

 

 

 

1. Holds a Masters degree in Food Technology from CFTRI, India 2. Business Management from IIM. 3. Bachelors in Agriculture, with a University Gold Medal from MPKV, Rahuri, India 4. Presently working as General Manager, for an MNC overseas travelling accross the world and having an insight view on global issues. 5. Apssionate on keeping a personal track on National & International issues specific to Security, Trade, Food, Agriculture etc

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